A mixed bag in state judicial elections—and what comes next

Look, do I have super inspirational words? No. But if we're going to move forward, we need to focus on the states—and state courts.

I have to acknowledge the obvious—there are no words that will capture my grief, frustration, anger, and fear about the results of Tuesdays’s election. It wasn’t just the presidential election, either. Up and down the ballot, candidates with far-right sympathies did far better than they should have in a country that ostensibly values dignity and empathy. There is a lot to digest, unpack, and assess in the years that come.

But, as I have said a number of times to friends and family members in the past few months, I will hold onto hope until it is pried out of my hands. While I might be in a tug-of-war over that hope right now, I’m going to do everything that I can to hold onto it. There’s no question that things are extremely dicey. Vulnerable communities will suffer, resources will be taken away from those who most need them, and we risk potentially irreversible damage to the fabric of our country.

There is a path forward, however—I have to believe that. The losses in the Senate suck, but winning a majority by 2028 is absolutely within reach. The House has yet to be called, and at worst, Republicans will have a slim majority. Democrats have a strong bench in the states after two positive midterm elections in a row, and it’s entirely possible that they’ll add to that bench in the next three years.

So let’s talk about the states. In the last few years, progressives have made tremendous progress with state courts—including winning or maintaining a majority on supreme courts in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And there’s a lot more to do with state courts. This year, as I’ll explain in detail below, was a mixed bag for judicial elections. More state courts took steps to the right than to the left, but there are some unequivocally positive outcomes and important progress was preserved.

I’ll share some high-level thoughts first and identify where I’m looking over the next few years. I’ll then go into a bit more detail about how specific races around the country unfolded.

Going into this election, progressives may have had a few goals and aspirations.

First, the offensive: Defeat a conservative candidate for the Arkansas Supreme Court, flip a seat on the Kentucky Supreme Court, expand the majority on the Michigan Supreme Court, and win a majority on the Ohio Supreme Court.

Second, the defensive: Win both races for the Montana Supreme Court, re-elect Justice Allison Riggs on the North Carolina Supreme Court, retain three justices on the Oklahoma Supreme Court, re-elect moderate Justice Jim Kitchens on the Mississippi Supreme Court, hold the open seat on the Washington Supreme Court, and defeat constitutional amendments in Arizona and New Hampshire that would’ve further entrenched conservative majorities on both states’ supreme courts.

And third, the aspirational: Defeat Republican-appointed justices on the Arizona and Florida supreme courts. Those defeats would’ve been symbolic in Florida, where Ron DeSantis would be able to replace the defeated justices with equally conservative judges, but in Arizona, defeats would’ve given the Democratic Governor, Katie Hobbs, the chance to fill two additional vacancies on the court.

Separately, while intermediate appellate court elections didn’t feature prominently in the national conversation—though I did feature those races in my preview here—there were a bunch of elections that largely represented an opportunity for Democrats to hold serve, rather than gain.

How did that work out?

For the offensive measures, actually decently well. The defensive measures are much more mixed. And the aspirational measures totally fell flat, with the four incumbent justices in Arizona and Florida winning their retention election with relative ease.

Offensive Measures

The two biggest victories of the night were in Kentucky and Michigan. In Kentucky, Judge Pamela Goodwine, a member of the Court of Appeals who was backed by Democrats, was elected to the Supreme Court from the 5th District, pushing the court a bit further to the left. This victory was certainly not expected—the 5th District is light red territory—but could be significant on a moderate-conservative court. Goodwine is also the first Black women elected to the court.

In Michigan, incumbent Justice Kyra Harris Bolden, a Democrat, was overwhelmingly re-elected, guaranteeing that Democrats held their majority. But law professor Kimberly Ann Thomas also won an open, Republican-held seat, allowing Democrats to expand their majority from 4-3 to 5-2. Given how fiercely protective the court has been of individual rights and liberties, as well as supportive of restraints on state legislative excesses, this means that, at least for the next four years, the court will be able to hand down bold rulings.

The stakes were significantly lower in Arkansas, but electing moderate-conservative Justice Karen Baker as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court over conservative Rhonda Wood was a minor victory, too. However, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be able to appoint a successor to Baker when she becomes associate justice.

The biggest letdown was in Ohio, where Democrats hoped to flip the court from a 4-3 Republican majority to a 4-3 Democratic majority. However, instead of that happening, Democrats lost ground—and they now sit at a 6-1 deficit, with the lone Democrat on the court, Jennifer Brunner, up next in 2026.

Defensive Measures

Progressives did much worse in trying to hold their own across the country, but there were some bright spots. Arizona voters decisively rejected a constitutional amendment that would have ended retention elections altogether—including retroactively cancelling this year’s elections—and New Hampshire voters seem to have rejected an amendment that would’ve raised the judicial retirement age to 75, which required approval from 2/3 of all voters.

One of the biggest priorities was winning the two elections for the Montana Supreme Court this year. The court has been protective of individual rights (including abortion), voting rights, and reining in Republican excesses in state government. However, the outcomes were split: conservative Cory Swanson defeated progressive Jerry Lynch in the race for Chief Justice while progressive Katherine Bidegaray defeated conservative Dan Wilson, both by 54-46% margins.

In Oklahoma, three justices on the Supreme Court appointed by Democratic governors ran in retention elections this year. The court has a 5-4 Republican advantage, but the court not infrequently hands down moderate decisions, like recognizing a narrow right to abortion under the state constitution. Conservative groups, hoping to give Republican Kevin Stitt three more appointments to the court, campaigned aggressively against the justices—a relative rarity for otherwise sleepy retention elections. While two of the justices—Noma Gurich and James Edmondson—narrowly won, the third, Yvonne Kauger, narrowly lost.

A few outcomes remain to be determined. In Washington, the open-seat election remains too close to call, with progressive Sal Mungia narrowly ahead of conservative Dave Larson by about 4,000 votes as of the time of publication, but plenty of votes are left to be counted. In Mississippi, moderate Justice Jim Kitchens trailed far-right State Senator Jennifer Branning in the initial count, but neither of them got a majority—so there will be a runoff election on November 26. It’s a tough race for Kitchens, and conservatives hold a durable majority on the court as it is.

The most difficult loss—though still yet to be finalized—was in North Carolina, where incumbent Justice Allison Riggs, one of just two Democrats on the court, likely lost re-election to Republican Jefferson Griffin. If Riggs ends up losing, Republicans’ majority would be a sprawling 6-1, a reversal of Democrats’ 6-1 majority going into the 2020 election. Even more concerningly, Democrats would be hard-pressed to win a majority before next decade.

Finally, in intermediate appellate court races across the country, progressive or Democratic judges were defeated. There were a few bright spots, so I’ll start there. Judge Lisa Payne Jones, an Andy Beshear appointee backed by labor, defeated conservative Jason Shea Fleming to win re-election to the Kentucky Court of Appeals in a dark-red district. In Ohio, Democrats picked up a seat on the 1st District Court of Appeals, winning a 6-0 majority in the process.

But for most intermediate appellate court elections, progressives lost ground. In Illinois, Republicans gained a seat on the Appellate Court, defeating interim Judge Lance Peterson in the 3rd District. In Michigan, a Republican-backed candidate picked up a seat on the Court of Appeals in the 2nd District. In North Carolina, Democrats were defeated in their challenges to two Republican judges and a Democratic incumbent narrowly lost. In Ohio, Republicans won a number of uncontested races in conservative-trending appellate courts across the state. And in Texas, Democrats got utterly blown out—Republicans flipped the 1st, 4th, 5th, 13th, and 14th courts of appeals, totally reversing Democrats’ stunning 2018 gains.

Where do we go from here?

This year’s judicial elections played out more negatively than positively on balance, though Democratic and progressive-affiliated candidates did notch some important wins.

However, there are some extremely important elections coming up in the next several years—and these are good places to turn our attention to.

Mississippi Supreme Court runoff election (District 1): Tuesday, November 26, 2024

This election, briefly discussed above, will determine whether moderate Justice Jim Kitchens or far-right State Senator Jennifer Branning serves on the Mississippi Supreme Court. The court is extremely conservative, but Kitchens has been on the right side of many of the court’s recent controversial decisions. He’s been outfunded by Branning so far, and placed second to her in the initial election. District 1, which is based in central Mississippi, is a conservative-leaning district, but has supported centrist candidates recently. In 2023, for example, Democrat De’Keither Stamps was narrowly elected to the state Public Service Commission from the same district. This is the first, and most urgent, opportunity in a judicial election.

Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Democrats’ victory in the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election was transformative, bringing in the first progressive majority in decades—and finally empowering voters to cast ballots in fairly drawn state legislative districts. Yet progressives must defend that majority very quickly. Long-serving incumbent Justice Ann Walsh Bradley is retiring from the court, and there’s a competitive race to succeed her. While the race has yet to finally settle, the progressive candidate is Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford, and the conservative candidate is former Attorney General Brad Schimel. Progressives must win this race for their 4-3 majority to continue.

Pennsylvania judicial elections: Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Supreme Court

The Democratic majority on Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court, first won in 2015 and repeatedly defended since then, has breathed new life into the state constitution’s recognition of rights and liberties and has transformed the electoral process in the state, striking down Republican gerrymanders and protecting the right to vote. After a Democratic victory in 2023, Democrats have a 5-2 majority on the court. Three of those justices—Christine Donohue, David Wecht, and Kevin Dougherty—face retention elections in 2025. Given the importance of these races, it seems likely that conservative groups will spend heavily to defeat them. It’s also possible that Justice Donohue, who faces a mandatory retirement in 2027, may opt to not seek re-election, which would switch the race from a retention election to a partisan election.

Commonwealth and Superior Courts

Pennsylvania has an unusual intermediate appellate court system—it has two separate appellate courts with jurisdiction based on the nature of the case. The Commonwealth Court hears some of the most high-profile cases, including election cases and cases that challenge government and regulatory actions. The Superior Court hears the remainder of the civil cases and all criminal cases.

After the 2023 elections, Republicans hold a narrow 5-4 majority on the Commonwealth Court and Democrats have a 8-6 majority on the Superior Court, with one vacancy. In 2025, Judge Michael Wojcik of the Commonwealth Court and Judge Alice Beck Dubow of the Superior Court—both Democrats—will face retention elections. There will also be an open election to fill the vacancy on the Superior Court.

2026: Elections galore

During the 2026 midterm elections—and during the primaries that year—many courts around the country will hold judicial elections, with very high stakes.

• Wisconsin: Tuesday, April 7: Conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley’s seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court will be up—which could give progressives a chance to regain their majority if they lose the 2025 election or to pad it.

• Georgia: Tuesday, May 26: Two members of the Georgia Supreme Court—Sarah Hawkins Warren and Charlie Bethel, both appointees of former Republican Governor Nathan Deal—are up for re-election. Georgia judicial elections are rarely contested, but that may change. The constitutionality of Georgia’s abortion ban will soon be determined by the court, which will raise the salience of state court elections in the state.

• Arizona: Tuesday, November 3: One member of the Arizona Supreme Court, Vice Chief Justice John Lopez IV, faces a retention election in 2026. The progressive campaign to oust two justices this year didn’t succeed, but may have laid the groundwork for a more successful 2026 campaign. If Lopez were defeated, the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial election would appoint his successor.

• Michigan: Tuesday, November 3: At least two seats will be up on the Michigan Supreme Court. Republican Chief Justice Elizabeth Clement, a moderate, and Democrat Megan Cavanagh are both up for re-election. Given how well Democrats did in this year’s elections, they could weather losing both seats, which would reduce them to a 4-3 majority—but winning both could power them to a 6-1 majority. However, Clement is popular, and beating her would be challenging.

• North Carolina: Tuesday, November 3: Democratic Justice Anita Earls will be up for re-election in 2026. Here, barring unexpected vacancies, Democrats have no chance of winning the majority in 2026, but re-electing Earls is necessary to regaining the majority.

• Ohio: Tuesday, November 3: At least two seats will be up on the Ohio Supreme Court. Republican Justice-elect Dan Hawkins, who was elected in a special election this year, and Democratic Justice Jennifer Brunner will both be up for re-election. Here, too, Democrats wouldn’t be able to win back the majority in 2026, but re-electing Brunner and defeating Hawkins would be necessary to winning the majority in 2028.

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There’s a lot that we can’t do right now. But there’s a lot that we can do very soon. Paying attention to upcoming judicial elections is absolutely vital—because victories can assure us of greater protections of our rights and liberties, a stronger right to vote, and insulation against election manipulation and partisan gerrymandering. We should take the time to rest, recharge, and take care of ourselves—but the fight continues. Onward.